Predicting winner in theatre competition 2

I’m back with more mathematical applications in theater. Yeay, FUN-nya. Mesti you all excited to read more about maths, bukan?

Well, actually ni just an extension to my previous entry on predicting winners. It's still within the realm of probability. Yeah, I know this is (these are) boring. Siapa je enjoy Maths? Alas, i found it interesting and interesting enough to write about it.

So to those who haven’t read it, and have no time to read it, here’s a summary:

In predicting which team can get top 3 in a theatre competition involving 10 teams, you’ll get 92% chances of getting at least 1 team correctly predicted if you pick (shortlist) 5 teams.

Ni takde hanky panky khurafat thingy although a bit of nujum vibe would really help pushing the chances higher a bit.

And also for revision, this is the basic idea on how we measure chances or probability of things happening.

So, given that premise or tips, it can be applied to other theater competition.

End of October ada Pesta Teater Kuala Lumpur 2024 yang melibatkan 10 kumpulan. But when the competition started, sefaham Malaysia ada 9 kumpulan je berjaya pentaskan naskahnya.

So, total of 9 teams bertanding. 1 short of 10.

So, berapa banyak team can i pick, so that my prediction will get higher chance of getting as much top 3 winners as I want?

5?

Well, disebabkan the total teams bertanding dah berubah, so, the chances will change slightly. To be safe, Malaysia consult balik nujum Malaysia untuk beri the updated reading.

So if i pick 5 teams (like in the case of PTR2024), my chances of getting at least 1 top 3 is 95%, slightly higher than the case of PTR2024, sebab PTR 2024 ada 10 teams.

And you see kalau Malaysia pick 7 teams, I will definitely get 1 top 3 winner. Sebabnya seperti illustrasi di bawah.

And as you can see in Case 3, which is the worst case where we only get 1 team correctly placed in the pool, it is impossible that there’s not a single winner in the pool. Because Top 3 winners mean you need 3 teams. But because we pick 7 teams out of 9, there are only 2 remaining teams. Assuming that these 2 remaining teams both getting Top 3, that means we still need 1 more team to fill the remaining Top 3 slot. So, that 1 team must come from the pool of the shortlisted 7 teams. Thus, the probability of getting 0 Top 3 winning team, when we pick (shortlisted) 7 teams is 0%, that is, impossible to happen.

So, kalau Malaysia nak selamat, I could pick 7 teams, for sure at least 1 kena punya dengan keputusan. Tapi mcm, where’s the challenge kan? Baik pick all 9.

So, Malaysia will shortlist 5 teams.

Tapi, unlike the case of PTR2024, PTKL2024 ni Malaysia tak tengok semua. So, I can’t make fully informed judgments. So based on yang Malaysia tengok, and based on comments beberapa narasumber yang tengok some others, Malaysia akan pick 5 jugak, seperti berikut, in no particular order,

• Sedu Di Kuala Lumpur

• Warga S

• Jajahan Chow Kit Road

• Brickfields

• Cerucuk Berkembar

So, kita tunggu je la keputusannya Sabtu ni. Of course la Malaysia ada favourite sendiri, tapi untuk mengelakkan difitnah bias, Malaysia akan rahsiakan. Tiber.